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Alex E
Alex E
Bitcoin just tested the 78K region again, and a lot of people are asking if the medium-term trend has flipped bearish. Let me break it down clearly. This pullback was driven by a daily chart divergence, with the 1H MACD dropping below the zero line. Price revisited the 78,800 - 78,200 support zone, which I had previously flagged as part of a larger 4,000-point range between 82,000 and 78,000. Once 82K failed to hold, a retrace here was expected. Last night, BTC touched 78,750, which is the lower Bollinger Band on the 12H chart. The daily middle Bollinger sits at 79,150, and price closed above it. That makes the dip below 79K a fakeout, not a real breakdown. No reason to chase shorts here. If BTC retests 79K and breaks it again, the next support to watch is 78,350 - 77,950. That's a key daily-level support zone. As long as the 78K area doesn't break down for real, it's a short-term buy zone. If it does break, the next accumulation point is roughly 2,000 points lower. From late April to the first week of May, BTC recovered about 8,000 points. A 0.618 retrace of that move lands near 78K. So as long as 78K holds, the recovery rally from April 7 is still intact, and the medium-term uptrend hasn't reversed. Yesterday, price tested three levels within the 80K-78K range: 79,755 (bounced 300 points), 79,455 (bounced 400 points), and 78,750 (bounced 950 points). I caught the last two entries and exited cleanly. Support around 79,150 is still solid. If you're looking to short, the safer zone is 79,700 - 80,200. Stay sharp, manage risk, and don't force trades. The structure is still bullish unless proven otherwise.

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